I have done some research and tinkering with numbers and came up with a way to determine a player's value in wins. As I discuss rosters, trades, draft picks, etc.., I will be talkng about a players wins. LeBron James had the most wins with 15. Kobe Bryant had 12 as did Chris Pual. The system I have in place splits up the wins a team earns during the year based on the player's statistis. Two players can have close to the same numbers but earn different win totals. That is because they have one major number that is different, team wins. There are players that score over 20, but can't win games. Ricky Davis is an example of that. Statistically, at one time, was very good. But, he never won games.
Ok, so here is some of the nitty gritty: Scoring is a huge factor. It's what the game is all about. Whoever scores the most wins. The teams with the higher point total had a fairly positive correlation. But, not as near as good as field goal percentage. FG% was a major factor. The better a team shoots, the more they win. FT% has absolutely now correlation. While FT attempted had a slight one. Another scoring statistic to include was 3-pointers. It was surpsrisingly strong correlation. However, you can't rely on threes. The more threes you shoot, the lower your FG% would be. So, there has to be a good medium with the two.
Next is rebounding. Defensive rebounds was the third highest correlaton. On the flip side, offensive rebounds had a negative correlation. That's right, teams with more offensive rebounds had fewer wins. Why? Because they are the same teams with the lowest shooting percentage. Therefore, they have more opportunities for offensive rebounds. If the Celtics shoot 10 shots and make 7, they only have a chance at 3 offensive rebounds. If another team makes only 4 of ten, they have twice as many chances for offensive rebounds. Defensive rebounds are based on how well your opponents shoot. And since all teams play each other, everyone basically has the same number of shots to try and rebound.
The second highest correlation behind FG% was assist to turnovers. Assist were prerry strong, and turnovers were extremely strong. But, combining the two gives a very strong correlation. So, point guards that don't score or rebound can still earn a lot of wins. That is why Chris Paul was even with Kobe Bryant on wins even though the Lakers won a lot more games.
Steals and Blocks get some wins as well. They are higher in value than free throws. But that's about it. So, I hope you enjoy this "new" idea I've been able to come up with.
